A pip is the smallest increment in any currency pair. In EUR/USD, a movement from 1.0066 to 1.0067 is one pip, so a pip is .0001. In USD/JPY, a movement from 120.45 to 120.46 is one pip, so a pip is .01. How much in dollars is this movement worth, for example, per 100,000 Euros in EUR/USD? How much is one pip worth per 100,000 Dollars in USD/JPY? We will refer to the size, in this case 100,000 units of the base currency, as the 'Notional Amount'. The formula for calculating a pip value is therefore: (one pip, with proper decimal placement/currency exchange rate) x (Notional Amount).

Using USD/JPY as an example, this yields: (.01/120.46) x USD $100,000 = $8.30 per pip.

Using EUR/USD as an example, we have: (.0001/1.0066) x EUR 100,000 = EUR 9.93.  But we want the pip value in USD, so we then must multiply EUR 9.93 x (EUR/USD exchange rate): EUR 9.93 x 1.0066 = $10.00 per pip.

This is in fact a phenomenon you will see with any currency in which the quote currency is USD (such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, or AUD/USD): the pip value is always USD $10.00 per 100,000 currency units. If the pair name ends with something other than USD the pip value per 100,000 currency units will be slightly more or less than USD $10.00.

Seem a bit too complicated? Check out our easy-to-use pip calculator and let it do the work for you.


*The leveraged nature of FX trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportionate effect on your deposited funds. This may work against you as well as for you. The possibility exists that you could sustain a total loss of initial margin funds and be required to deposit additional funds to maintain your position. If you fail to meet any margin call within the time prescribed, your position will be liquidated and you will be responsible for any resulting losses.

**Trading in the off-exchange retail foreign currency market is one of the riskiest forms of investment available. Our complete risk disclaimer can be found here:  http://www.ibfx.com/Legal/RiskWarning.aspx

The 30 minute USD/JPY had been trending higher until prices tested the 90.80 minor psychological level with a 90.81 high. The subsequent pullback has set up what could be an early look at the swing entry. A swing entry within an uptrend requires pullbacks to support levels that will attract buyers. Using tools such as Daily Pivots and Fibonacci Retracement can help identify these swing buy levels.

Overall, the USD/JPY remains range-bound as can be seen on the daily chart of the pair. Prices are being squeezed by downtrend line resistance and a pair of uptrend line support levels as the price range continues to narrow. It is for this reason I have chosen to focus on shorter term intraday time frames like the 30 minute chart. I feel there is less likelihood of a trigger following through on longer intraday time frames like the 240 minute when the daily is range-bound.

The 30 minute chart has already confirmed today’s pivot point support at 90.36 as prices bounced along this key level before rallying higher towards the 90.80 minor psychological level. Prices did not seem to acknowledge the 90.50 level so traders are willing to keep the intraday USD/JPY between 90.36 and 90.81 for the near term.

The swing entry support levels that I am watching are postitioned near the 34 period EMA high which is currently at 90.40. Consider that the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement support is at 90.36 and this is overlapping with the pivot point making this level a very strong support that could be an effective entry for a swing buy. This Fibonacci Retracement was drawn from the 89.62 low to the 90.81 high.

Traders familiar with Fibonacci Retracements know that there is seldom just one rally or sell-off from which the Fibonacci Levels can be calculated. I think in this case there is another shorter rally that is worth a look.

Here the move from the 89.93 low to the 90.81 high has identified a 50% Fibonacci Retracement level at 90.37.

The swing trigger could rely on the area between 89.36 and 89.40 for support and a continuation higher within the current uptrend on the 30 minute USD/JPY. Remember that the trend must continue to maintain a twelve to two o’clock angle of the 34EMA Wave in order to confirm the uptrend. If the trend transitions to a sideways market cycle, the swing buy entry is no longer valid.

To learn more about Fibonacci, Pivots, my 34EMA Wave, and Swing Trading, keep an eye on my Weekly IBFX Classroom Sessions for topics, dates, and times.

*Please note that nothing in these blogposts by Raghee Horner is a recommendation to buy or sell currencies.

Due to volatility in the market during news announcements, trading during economic news is inherently risky. As with all major economic releases there could be significant price volatility with this announcement. Currency spreads will typically widen just before the release and will remain wide for a few minutes after. If the announcement is a shock to the consensus estimate, the price of the currency pair could gap significantly. For example, the price on the EURUSD trading at 1.2820 - 1.2822 just before release could gap up 60 pips to 1.2880 - 1.2882, without any available prices available between the price of 1.2820 and 1.2882. A Buy Stop placed before the announcement at 1.2830 would turn into a Market Order and would be filled at the prevailing price 1.2882. The same would be true with a Sell Stop.

During news, plan on the spreads widening and if you are trading with a Buy or a Sell Stop entry order, do not anticipate being filled at your entry price. You will be filled at the prevailing market price after the release, and this market price could be significantly different from your desired price of your entry order.

Trading in the off exchange retail foreign currency market is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Read the full risk disclaimer and privacy policy on trading Forex online.

Download the Interbank FX Trader 4 directly to your wireless phone:
1.    Enter one of the following links into the internet browser on your phone.
Pocket PC (touch screen and stylus):  http://www.ibfx.com/Platform/Downloads/ifxt4mobilesetup.cab
Smart Phone: http://www.ibfx.com/Platform/Downloads/ifxt4mobilesetup.se.cab
2.    Make sure the “Open file after download” is checked and press “Yes”.
3.    After download is complete, follow instructions for opening a demo account or login to your live account by going to “Tools” from the main platform view.

Install with ActiveSync:
1.    When your mobile device is connected it should display a “connected” status with a green ActiveSync symbol.

2.    Type one of the following links into an internet browser on your computer and press enter:
Pocket PC (touch screen and stylus): http://www.ibfx.com/Platform/Downloads/ifxt4mobilesetup.exe
Smart Phone: http://www.ibfx.com/Platform/Downloads/ifxt4mobilesetup.se.exe
Select “Save file”, and save it to your desktop.
3.    After saving it to your desktop you will see the download icon. Double click it to start installation via ActiveSync (make sure you still have green connected status with your mobile device).
4.    After download is complete, follow instructions for opening a demo account or logging into your live account by going to “Tools” from the main platform view.


*Trading in the off-exchange retail foreign currency market is one of the riskiest forms of investment available. Our complete risk disclaimer can be found here:  http://www.ibfx.com/Legal/RiskWarning.aspx

The idea behind my trade entries is to focus on what the pair and the specific time frame is telling me.  The “message of the market” can be seen in a different light across the individual time frames. This is a concept that many traders miss. In fact, the most commonly followed time frame may be the daily and it is this time frame that is most often used to determine a pair’s trend. But this view of the a pair would cause a trader to miss out on market cycle shifts that can commonly be seen intraday especially across shorter term time frames like the 15, 30, and even 60 minute charts.

Viewing each chart as a stand along reflection of the market’s mood is the key to finding more opportunities in the market. This should not equate to more active trading, simply more varied trade selection. Think of each time frame as a different view of the psychology of a pair. Certainly a five minute chart is a more short term view of market opinion than the trend (or lack of) on a daily chart. While these two time frames could not be further apart on the time frame spectrum, it makes the point: Short term time frames reflect a short term opinion and shorter term opinions can shift quickly and often. This can also be broken down to simple arithmetic. A five minute time frame will have 12 new candles each hour. Contrast that with a one hour chart which will have 24 candles each day. Is it more likely that the five minute chart will cycle through uptrends, downtrends, and sideways markets more often and quicker than a 60 minute chart? Ofcourse.

The idea behind market cycles is nothing new. It was discussed and explained at length by Charles Dow in the early 1900s. Dow wrote of three market trends: accumulation, mark up, and distribution. Accumulation is a quiet, narrow ranging sideways market while distribution could be considered its cousin since it is also a sideways market cycle but more volatile and wider ranging. Mark up is simply an uptrend. Dow wrote about the stock market and thus his theory of market trends has a bullish bias. For forex traders we will add a fourth cycle: Mark down or a downtrend.

On any given day, the trend of a shorter term time frame could be up while the daily trend could be down. The EUR/USD is a perfect example of this. Notice that the 15 minute chart of the EUR/USD was in an uptrend for most of the Monday trading session. It did subsequently correct this move higher and is currently trading at 1.3630.

All the while the 15 minute was trading higher, the daily EUR/USD did little to change the direction of the overall downtrend (mark down cycle).

Here is an example where if a trader did want to seek out a buy entry on the EUR/USd and follow a short term trend shift, the 15 minute time frame could have helped set up such a trade. The daily chart - in sharp contrast - is firmly with the bears as prices continue to test the downtrend resistance at the 34ema low and makes new lower lows as seen by the March 3rd 1.3619 low.

By viewing the same pair but across different time frames the longer and short term view of market opinion can not only be identified and separated but also potentially traded.

Off exchange retail foreign currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available and may not be suitable for all traders.
Read the full risk disclaimer and privacy policy on trading Forex online.

  * Note: As with all major economic releases there could be significant price volatility with this announcement.  Currency spreads will typically widen just before the release and will remain wide for a few minutes after.  If the announcement is a shock to the consensus estimate, the price of the currency pair could gap significantly.  For example, the price on the EURUSD trading at 1.2820 - 1.2822 just before release could gap up 60 pips to 1.2880 - 1.2882, without any available prices available between the price of 1.2820 and 1.2882.  A Buy Stop placed before the announcement at 1.2830 would turn into a Market Order and would be filled at the prevailing price 1.2882.  The same would be true with a Sell Stop.

Basically, plan on the spreads widening and if you are trading with a Buy or a Sell Stop entry order, do not anticipate being filled at your entry price. You will be filled at the prevailing market price after the release, and this market price could be significantly different from your desired price of your entry order.

Interbank FX is extending our limited access webinar series with industry professional Raghee Horner. All of our live account holders have access to our new lower pricing, 100% automated order execution, Dow Jones news that streams straight from the platform and award winning customer service- and now a special invitation to this 3-part webinar series with Raghee Horner.

Thursday, March 11: Fibonacci 45/45/ split

Thursday, March 18: Market Cycles and the Wave

Thursday, March 25: Five Minute Intraday Set Ups

We hope you’ll join us!

The Interbank FX Team

RAGHEE HORNER is a private trader, founder of EZ2Trade Software, blogger, and author. She is a regular contributor at a number of sites including FX Street, Trading Markets, Baby Pips, Forex Pros,Autochartist, eSignal and a featured speaker at the Forex and Traders Expos as well as the International Stock Exchange. She has written articles for Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, Currency Trader, Your Trading Edge, and Traders Journal magazine. Raghee trades from her home in Coral Springs, FL. where she lives with her husband, Herb, and their two dogs.

Interbank FX™ LLC • Registered FCM, Member NFA • DISCLAIMER: Trading in the off exchange retail foreign currency market is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

Writen by Raghee Horner, Chief Currency Analyst, Interbank FX

The daily EUR/USD rallied to the 34 period EMA low as prices climbed steadily during Wednesday’s trading session from 1.591 to 1.3736. The details about the Greek government’s resumption of the 10 year bond auction must be tempered with longer term concerns, lack of German capital, and any comments that Trichet will make today during the ECB Press Conference at 8:30am EST. In light of that, the pullback during the Asian session back to yesterday’s pre-rally range shows that traders are taking profits.

The swing set up on the daily chart was triggered when prices reaches the major psychological level at 1.3700 and the bottom line of the 34 period EMA Wave. I define a swing short entry as an overall trend following entry however it differs from setting up momentum in that a correction of the trend is necessary rather than a break down lower through support. I feel the idea behind swing entries is that healthy trends correct. The risk in such a corrective entry is that the market direction may shift to a sideways cycle which could weaken the likelihood of the trend continuing. However near term confirmation of the downtrend can be seen in as EUR/USD prices are once again below 1.3700 and the U.S. Dollar Index is finding buying support above 80.00.

From what I see on the chart, yesterday’s price action easily broke the intraday range that the 60 minute chart had been in, however, it seems that traders are reigning in the bulls as prices are re-entering the range below 1.3700. The move higher Wednesday, I feel reflected the initial rally on quite frankly any details being released regarding the Greek Austerity plan and today’s pullback today is simply profit taking on yesterday’s move. It is a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction. The market cycle shift is also noticeable on the 60 minute as well. Consider that yesterday, even within the wide range, the 60 minute chart was in an uptrend and it’s that trend that continued as prices broke higher through 1.3670.Today prices have not only broke lower through the support of the Wave by piercing 1.3671 (which is the 34 period EMA low), but the market cycle itself has transitioned to more of a sideways cycle which would be a momentum environment. Based on this information, I feel that now many traders will look to identify the high and low of the intraday range and enter long on surges through resistance and enter short on pushed through support.

Remember that the overall trend of this market is still down as seen on the daily chart and the rejection at 1.3700, and, in my opinion, will be the line in the sand for traders who are expecting more downside from the EUR/USD. The low for today remains 1.3632.

*Please note that nothing in these blogposts by Raghee Horner is a recommendation to buy or sell currencies.

Due to volatility in the market during news announcements, trading during economic news is inherently risky. As with all major economic releases there could be significant price volatility with this announcement. Currency spreads will typically widen just before the release and will remain wide for a few minutes after. If the announcement is a shock to the consensus estimate, the price of the currency pair could gap significantly. For example, the price on the EURUSD trading at 1.2820 - 1.2822 just before release could gap up 60 pips to 1.2880 - 1.2882, without any available prices available between the price of 1.2820 and 1.2882. A Buy Stop placed before the announcement at 1.2830 would turn into a Market Order and would be filled at the prevailing price 1.2882. The same would be true with a Sell Stop.

During news, plan on the spreads widening and if you are trading with a Buy or a Sell Stop entry order, do not anticipate being filled at your entry price. You will be filled at the prevailing market price after the release, and this market price could be significantly different from your desired price of your entry order. Trading in the off exchange retail foreign currency market is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Read the full risk disclaimer and privacy policyon trading Forex online.

March 4, 2010

“Could you give me your comments and suggestion on risk management. What is your position on the rule that many traders have, that at one given point you should not risk more than 1-2% of your total account value. Let say if I have a $10,000 account, I should not risk more than $100-$200 in a trade. And what about placing orders on correlated pairs like the USD/CHF and EUR/USD at the same time if the conditions on the wave, support and resistance are good?”

To 2% or not to 2%. This is a great question. One that I think a lot of traders have. I think risk management is more of a psychological issue. I think that following a stop loss has everything to do with discipline and little to nothing to do with a percentage or number of pips. Based on my opinion, most traders do not follow their “formula” based stop losses because they frankly don’t mean anything. it’s easy to move the placement or ignore it when there is not meaning attached to why the stop loss was placed at a particular price point. Using a 30 pips based stop? Why not 35? It’s just to easy to move when they are arbitrary or based on a number or percent. This is taken from years and years of self observation and teaching hundreds of students up close…

I also don’t like the idea because it somehow insinuates that trading is like gambling or craps…which in some ways I acknowledge it is…but I believe there is less left to change when trading. Friends of mine who are great traders and gamblers succeed because of discipline and knowing when to vary their bet size. That’s not luck or a formula, that comes from identifying when the momentum is on your side!

Now, contrast that to determining a stop loss…there’s a approach there. It’s one that involves the idea that every trade has a point at which it is invalid. The point of validity is the point at which is buy or sell is no longer a trade worth holding because something has changed great enough in price to change the reasoning for the entry. Notice I did not mention a % or # (of pips).

Now, I agree the 1 or 2% can be a threshold. Certainly there are entries that when considering where the point of validity is, could represent too great a risk (potential loss) to your account and those trades should not be taken.

Somehow though 1 to 2% percent morphed from a “threshold” to a “stop loss”. I think that is incorrect. I think that when a triangle breaks, 1 to 2% can be considered as the threshold but that the stop loss is determined by the point of validity (POV). The POV in this case would be the other side of the triangle pattern. How could a triangle breakout through resistance still be valid if prices break down through the uptrend line support…it can’t…and that’s why for this set up, the opposite side of the trade is the validity.

The other side of the triangle is not a percentage or pip consideration, it’s support and resistance. If this POV represents 1 to 2% of your account size then sure, it’s likely the trade presents too much risk. In other words, different trades will be appropriate for some accounts and not appropriate for others.

As to the second question. I don’t have a problem with being long the EUR/USD and short the USD/CHF simultaneously. Each entry must have it’s own set up because merely being long one does not justify being short the other in my opinion. And from the way the question was phrased, I would say you got that.

This also brings up a great point: harmony or synergy. I look for trades — when taking positions across different pairs — to have harmony in regards to their price movement. For example, when the U.S. Dollar rallies it should usually push the EUR/USD lower and the USD/CHF higher. I typically don’t want to hedge and I don’t want to take entries on the same time frame on different pairs that would require — for example — conflicting U.S. Dollar Index movement.

*Note: In volatile market conditions, orders may not be filled as placed and substantial losses may occur.Trading in the off exchange retail foreign currency market is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Nothing in this blogpost is a recommendation to buy or sell currencies.

Yesterday our Chairman and President, Todd Crosland was featured in a Forex Magnates interview regarding the CFTC Leverage Limitations. The interview encompassed our stance on the issue, and I wanted to share it with you all.

At this point, It looks like we have a good level of support from lawmakers and the 5,600 people who have submitted comments to the CFTC.

Forex Magnates
CFTC Proposed Leverage Limitations

1. Do you think the proposed CFTC regulations would make US brokers uncompetitive?

We at Interbank FXstand behind the belief that Forex traders should be given the freedom and right to choose the amount of leverage that is appropriate for their individual desired risk, and that this basic principle of 'choice' is in jeopardy by the proposed CFTC regulations.

We have always supported regulation and consider proper regulation one of the original three pillars that have permitted the development of the off-exchange retail foreign currency (Forex) industry, the others being trading software and the internet. We want to make it clear that we support the intention of the original 2008 farm bill.  Where we disagree is in regards to the CFTC proposed increased margin required from 1% to 10% of the notional value of the trade.

We believe in a level playing field for the trading markets and the importance of customer choice. These proposed changed can potentially deny the customer the ability and right to manage their own money and assume risk as they see fit.

The off-exchange retail foreign currency (Forex) industry has been tremendously successful throughout its history and in our case, primarily customer driven under the CFTC and NFA ensuring a safe and secure trading environment. We believe in customer choice and the growth of Interbank FX has, we feel, demonstrated the fairness of our approach. If we did not provide a service that our customer both desired and felt was fair we would not be seeing the success we see today. 

If this leverage rule were to pass, the FXDC believes up to 90% of US based business will move overseas.

2. What is the most harmful part of the regulations - leverage or the IB backing?

The most harmful part of the regulations is certainly the proposed leverage limitation.  This limitation, if passed, will drive most US retail customers to overseas brokers and could ultimately lead to the demise of every US Forex broker brought on by their inability to compete in the global marketplace.  This demise of US brokers has the potential to result in the loss of thousands of US jobs, the loss of more than 1 billion US revenue dollars generated for the economy, and the endangerment of all of US retail traders.   US retail traders would potentially move their accounts offshore, and in some cases, be trading through unregulated brokers where there may be no capital requirements, no registration requirements, and no oversight by any regulatory authority.  These unregulated dealers usually aren't concerned with marketing ethics, dealing practices and many times don't have the customer's best interest at heart. 

Alternatively, if any US brokers do survive the passing of the leverage limitation, the portion of US retail traders who might choose to stay with a US based broker will have to add 10 times the amount of capital to continue trading the same amounts.  Many US retail traders simply do not have the resources to trade at these levels, and ultimately, the majority of smaller retail traders will be forced out of the industry.
 
3. Why is the reaction to these proposed rules  much stronger than to the FIFO rule which was almost as harmful to the US forex industry?

The FIFO rule implementation, which limited the manner in which customers could open and close positions, in many ways brought about a mere inconvenience for customers.  While it did most likely lead to a small portion of US customers taking their accounts abroad, the amount of customers which left US brokers due to the FIFO rule will pale in comparison to the amount that will leave if the proposed leverage limitation is accepted.  Because the affect of this rule could potentially collapse an entire US industry, the reaction and pushback we’re seeing from the American public is much larger than the one we saw with FIFO.
    
4. Why do you think the Forex Dealers Coalition (FXDC) does not include ALL US Forex brokers? 

No firms were excluded from the FXDC.

5. How can the average Joe the trader help oppose these rules?

Interbank FX, along with all other FXDC members encourages Forex traders to voice your concern for or against the proposal. Individuals can submit a comment to the CFTC by sending an email to secretary@cftc.gov with “Regulation of Retail Forex” in the subject line. Remember: you must provide your address and contact information in the email in order for it to be considered by the CFTC. Also, individuals should be aware that the CFTC has the right to publish comments, and will publish your email on a public page on their website. The deadline for comments is March 13, 2010.

Also, with the identification number RIN 3038-AC61, you can submit your comments by any of the following methods:

•Fax: (202) 418-5521.
•Mail: Send to David Stawick, Secretary, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 1155 21st Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20581.
•Courier: Same as Mail above.

6. What do you think the US Forex industry will look like 5 years from now?

If the proposed leverage limitation is accepted, the US Forex industry will most likely be very different 5 years from now. 

7. Where do you envision Interbank FX 5 years from now?

As mentioned, a lot of this depends on the leverage limitation outcome. However, we are hopeful this will not pass.  We are on a fast moving train right now, and don’t plan on slowing down anytime soon. We’re currently in the process of opening up our UK and Australian sister companies, which will allow our traders more flexibility if in fact these leverage changes do go into effect. We also have the Middle East and Asia on our radar, and will continue to expand and open new offices around the globe as we see fit.

Our customer experience is constantly improving, allowing traders a greater share of voice.  We strive for transparency, which will continue to thrive in the years to come.

8. We sometimes see news of your US competitors acquiring overseas brokers, are you planning on doing the same? If so, on which geographies would you put your emphasize?

Interbank FX has filed an FSA application in the UK and we plan to open our office in the upcoming months. In addition, we’re also hoping to open an office in Australia in 2010 and in the future look to expand our business into Asia, the Middle East and beyond. Our customers are at the center of every decision we make, and we will allow them to continue to guide us in providing the best trading solutions for their needs.

9. How is IBFX better than its competition and/ or how does it differentiate itself?

Our continued growth and success can primarily be attributed to the high regard in which we hold our clients.  Our entire business model was designed around our customers, and we believe that this is the reason why they choose to come back to us again and again.  If Interbank FX clients are not receiving market leading trade execution, risk management tools, world-class customer service and price transparency when they use our services, then we are not accomplishing what we set out to do in this industry. We believe we will continue to have a profitable company if we’re able to provide our customers with the tools, education and knowledge to facilitate successful trading.
 
General Forex market questions:

10. Will the online retail Forex market keep growing at double digits in the coming years as well?

There are usually two conditions for one sector of the financial markets to maintain dominant: innovation and plenty of volatility. Forex trading has both. We believe that the market will continue to expand as traders become more familiar with this asset class.  There is a segment of serious investors that are interested in international economics.  These investors get involved in the Forex market as a way to trade as well as indulge their interests.
 
11. Where do you think the center (geographically) of Forex will be in the medium-long term future?

Because of the dispersed nature of the market, it is hard to determine a geographical center.  However, as countries like China and India start to open up to off-exchange retail foreign currency trading it is likely that there will be a substantial increase in the number of traders in those areas. 

*Off exchange retail foreign currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available and may not be suitable for all traders. Read the full risk disclaimer and privacy policyon trading Forex online.

You will login to your Live Account on the MT4 trading platform, even if you already have a demo account on that platform.

 To login to your Live Account follow these steps:

1.    From your platform, go to “File”, and down to “Login”.

2.    When your account was approved, you received an email containing the information for these three fields. Please use that information to fill in your login (account number), your live account password, and select from the drop-down menu the server your account is assigned to.

3.    Press the Login button.  After a few seconds you should see a connection status in the bottom right hand corner of your platform.

If you see “invalid account” in this area, you have either entered your account number, password, or your server incorrectly.

To login to your My Interbank FX online account follow these steps:
1.    Go to our website www.ibfx.com
2.    In the top right hand corner click “Log In”

3.    This will bring you to a login window where you enter the Login and Password for your My Interbank FX online account. (You created these when you filled out your live account application.)

 If you have forgotten your password, please click the forgot password link.


Trading in the off-exchange retail foreign currency market is one of the riskiest forms of investment available. Our complete risk disclaimer can be found here:  http://www.ibfx.com/Legal/RiskWarning.aspx

By Raghee Horner, Chief Currency Analyst

This Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) countdown has begun with today’s ADP (Automatic Data Processing) Non-Farm Employment Change release at 8:15am EST.  It is widely considered the kick-off to the prognosticating and congestion that will occur as traders await the big Friday number.  Identifying the range of the congestion across shorter term intraday charts like the 15, 30, and 60 minute chart is an effective way to attempt to identify the market psychology and therefore the market cycle in order to analyze the price action between now and 8:30am EST Friday morning.

Let’s take a closer look at the 60 minute EUR/USD as the Greek Austerity plan and U.S. Dollar Index support at 80.20 should be a factor throughout the morning session.

The current market cycle on the 60 minute chart is in a mark up or uptrend as the 34ema Wave is showing near term strength.  The issue is not the strength but rather the ceiling that is waiting as the EUR/USD seems stuck within a larger range.  The range is currently 1.3655 to 1.3670 to the upside and 1.3433 to 1.3455 to the downside.  This leaves an over 230 pip range on the EUR/USD between the floor and ceiling and enough range to continue to encourage fading at the exhaustion highs and lows of the range as can be seen since February 19th.  This will likely be the case until Friday’s NFP.
 
The Greek Austerity plan is the wildcard however.  With early reports indicating that Germany is not on board this, in my experience, will likely keep the EUR/USD within the range and not let prices breakout higher as positive news of a bailout for Greece was widely expected to create.  The highs of the range in my opinion are most likely indicative of the positive discounting of good news out of Europe.  The price to watch will be the range high at 1.3670.

The other factor keeping the EUR/USD in check is the support near and at 80.00 on the U.S. Dollar Index (traded on the ICE).  The contract has been bouncing from the 80.08 to 80.21 and I believe this further confirms the ceiling seen intraday on the EUR/USD. 

If there is to be a fade off the ceiling this morning look to the rising wedge pattern on the 60 minute chart.  The mark up cycle confirms that there is a trend on this time frame and therefore the correct environment for a trending pattern such as a wedge.  There are two support levels to watch as both the uptrend line of the pattern and the 34ema high are converging at 1.3620.  The 1.3620 is a minor psychological number and just adds more support and relevance to this price level.

EUR/USD 60 minute chart with the PRS plug in

EUR/USD 60 minute chart with the MACD Traditional plug in

The short term momentum is starting to shift as can be seen with the subtle shift in the MACD (Traditional) Histogram.  Since there is a trending characteristic to this time frame, a Stochastic would not be the ideal indicator to use in this situation.  The MACD Histogram is currently dipping below the “0” line as the 12 period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is crossing below the 26 period EMA.  I believe this is confirmation of the weakness as bulls are being overcome by selling pressure from the bears.

Off exchange retail foreign currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available and may not be suitable for all traders. Our complete risk disclaimer can be found here.

*Note: As with all major economic releases there could be significant price volatility with this announcement.  Currency spreads will typically widen just before the release and will remain wide for a few minutes after.  If the announcement is a shock to the consensus estimate, the price of the currency pair could gap significantly.  For example, the price on the EURUSD trading at 1.2820 - 1.2822 just before release could gap up 60 pips to 1.2880 - 1.2882, without any available prices available between the price of 1.2820 and 1.2882.  A Buy Stop placed before the announcement at 1.2830 would turn into a Market Order and would be filled at the prevailing price 1.2882.  The same would be true with a Sell Stop.
 
Basically, plan on the spreads widening and if you are trading with a Buy or a Sell Stop entry order, do not anticipate being filled at your entry price. You will be filled at the prevailing market price after the release, and this market price could be significantly different from your desired price of your entry order.

EUR/USD 60 minute chart with the Wave indicator and GRaB plug-in